It is telling that one of the devices garnering much attention at this weeks Mobile World Congress is a phone that will start at an unsubsidized price of about $122.在本周的全球移动通讯大会(Mobile World Congress)上，一款非合约版起价只有122美元的手机引发了大家的注目。Even more telling: the device is from Nokia, using the Android operating system that is owned by Google, rival to Nokias soon-to-be parent Microsoft. Another twist is that smartphone buyers in established markets such as North America may never see it. The Nokia X is targeted at regions including India, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East where consumers have limited funds for wireless gizmos.更加最重要的是，这款手机是诺基亚公司(Nokia Co.)发售的，使用谷歌(Google Inc.)安卓(Android)系统，谷歌是微软公司(Microsoft Co.)的竞争对手，而微软公司将要沦为诺基亚东家。还有一个出人意料之处，这款取名为Nokia X的手机不投入北美等成熟期市场，而是面向印度、拉美、非洲和中东等手机购买力较强的市场发售。Microsoft may feel a bit unsettled by the move, but it is illustrative of the limited options available to companies in the smartphone business whose names arent Apple, Google or Samsung. The Android and iOS platforms accounted for nearly 96% of all smartphones shipped last year, according to IDC. Samsung and Apple together accounted for more than 46% of global shipments by vendor, with everyone else getting single-digit market shares.微软公司也许不会稍感忧虑，不过这说明了在智能手机市场，除了苹果(Apple Inc.)、谷歌或三星(Samsung Electronics Co.)以外的公司自由选择受限。

国际数据公司(International Data Corporation, 全称IDC)回应，去年安卓和iOS智能手机的发货量占有率完全超过96%。三星和苹果占到全球智能手机制造商发货量的46%以上，所有其他品牌的市场份额皆将近10%。This is why many observers write off other companies as also-rans. But it is important to realize that smartphones are unlike the PC market that Microsoft has dominated with Windows.这也是为什么许多仔细观察人士将其他手机公司念归属于失败者的行列。

不过必须认为的是，智能手机市场与微软公司Windows占到主导地位的PC市场是有差异的。Compared to PCs, smartphones have a shorter replacement cycle and are often not locked down by employers, which often allow staff to choose their own devices. So customers arent permanent; they can shift to new devices and platforms.比起个人电脑，智能手机的替换周期更加较短，而且一般老板会拒绝雇员必需用于哪种手机，而是容许员工自行自由选择手机。

因此手机用户不是永久恒定的，他们随时有可能换一部新手机或是转用别的操作系统。In this light, a bet like the one being placed by Microsoft and Nokia isnt a surefire loser. Microsoft will try to sell Nokia X buyers on its own software and services, with hopes of converting them to a Windows Phone down the road. The dynamics of the smartphone market are also why new entrants including Lenovo and Asus still smell opportunity despite their late start.这样显然，微软公司和诺基亚的这步棋并非预见告终。微软公司不会希望向出售Nokia X手机的用户引荐自己的软件和服务，寄希望于有朝一日这些用户不会转用Windows Phone。

智能手机市场的这种特性也说明了像联想集团有限公司(Lenovo Group Ltd., 全称：联想集团)和华硕(Asus)这种后来者为什么依然能闻到机会。But it remains a stretch. The easy money is gone, and profits will be harder to come by. IDC forecasts the smartphone market to grow at 18.4% per year to 2017, after averaging 46.5% over the last three years. Handset average selling prices, meanwhile, are expected to hit about $265 by 2017--down 21% from 2013, IDC predicts. Apple and Samsung still claim most of the available profits given their ability to squeeze large price subsidies from wireless carriers.不过后来者要挑战行业巨头也绝非易事。

智能手机的暴利时代完结了，赚显得更加艰难。IDC预测，智能手机市场的年增长率到2017年将降到18.4%，过去三年的平均值增长率为46.5%。IDC还预计，手机平均值售价到2017年将跌到至265美元左右，较2013年暴跌21%。苹果和三星仍将占有大部分利润，因为它们的议价能力更加强劲，需要从无线运营商那里谋求到较多的价格补贴。

New entrants will need to prove their devices can sell volumes big enough to maintain support from carriers and retailers. More of those sales will be made on price rather than features--and there is no app that makes that easy.后来者必需证明自己的手机需要大买，否则难免会丧失运营商和零售商的反对。对这些手机生产商来说，产品能无法最畅销更好地各不相同价格而不是性能，这决不是更容易做的事。

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